Apocalypse Tomorrow

The only thing a divided Bolivia can agree on is that something very bad will happen after the Dec. 18 elections. Over the past four months, I've spoken to U.S. embassy officials, men on the street across the country, journalists, an oil man, activists, academics, taxi drivers and, today in the sauna at our hotel, a DEA agent.
These are the scenarios that most people I've talked to believe could play out:
If Evo Morales --a leftist coca grower with alliances with Hugo Chavez and Fidel --is elected to be Bolivia's first indigenous president, the U.S. will get pissed and likely sever most diplomatic and economic ties with South America's poorest country.
The Bush administration doesn't like Evo's career as a grower of the leaves that can be processed into cocaine. Nor does it fancy his friends and their opposition to hemispheric free trade.
The Spanish and Brazilian petroleum companies will flee the country if Evo is elected fearing that the new president will nationalize the industry. Evo and his supporters -- and those that form a disenfranchised indigenous majority -- shut down La Paz last summer and drove President Carlos Mesa from power. They also managed to get a 50% petroleum tax established -- the proceeds of which are supposed to go toward improving schools, universities and other social services. Without Petrobras and Repsol around, there won't be anyone to pull gas out of the ground. No gas out of the ground means no taxes.
If Tuto Quiroga takes office than Evo's supporters will go apeshit. Tuto is seen as an American stooge tied to the white oligarchy that has ran Bolivia for centuries. They will shut down the country again with violent protests and highway blockades and perhaps drive it into civil war.
The wildcard is the military, which insiders say is trying to buck history and support "democracy."
But if Evo takes power and isolates the country economically, who knows what the men with guns will do. And if Tuto becomes presidente and things heat up on the streets, the army could likely step in and attempt to establish order. Historically when the military takes charge like this, human rights suffer.